Title Environmental Decision-Making Under Abrupt Transformation: Lessons from the Nova Kakhovka Dam Breach and Data-Driven Dengue Control
Author(s) Quillon Harpham
Affiliation HR Wallingford
Country UK
Contribution type conceptual paper; methodological pape
Thematic area • Theory, Methodology, and Evidence• War and Freshwater Systems
Conference framework connection • Analytical Track AT-01 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-02 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-03 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-04 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-05 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-06 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-07 — provisional title to be defined
Abstract Abrupt environmental transformations create two simultaneous problems: rapid change in the physical system and disruption of the data needed to understand and manage that change. This contribution examines that problem through two contrasting cases. The first is the catastrophic breach of the Nova Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine on 6 June 2023, which rapidly drained the upstream reservoir, interrupted irrigation, flooded downstream areas and mobilised pollution from multiple sources. A rapid assessment undertaken in the days following the breach is used to examine what could be established from the available information, additional points of concern requiring further analysis, and how data quality and continuity affected immediate interpretation and decision-making.
The second case concerns data-driven dengue control in endemic countries. Disease surveillance, mosquito-vector control and hospital preparedness depend on continuous and near-real-time information on case numbers, viral serotypes, climate and environmental conditions, together with historical records sufficient to distinguish anomalies from normal variability. Abrupt transformations—including population displacement, conflicts, lockdowns and interruption of monitoring—can simultaneously change transmission conditions and weaken the information systems used to respond.
The comparison is methodological rather than an assertion that the two cases are environmentally equivalent. It identifies a common decision problem: how to maintain defensible analysis when the monitored system and the evidence infrastructure change at the same time. The presentation conveys the observed impacts from the two cases and discusses the use of data to support each. It argues that resilience must include the likelihood of missing or interrupted data streams; conveys the necessity to preserve pre-event baselines of data provision; and emphasizes the value of understanding data uncertainty. For war-affected freshwater and health systems, data continuity is therefore not merely a technical concern. It is part of preparedness, scientific reliability and responsible response.
Key points • Abrupt transformations affect both environmental conditions and the information systems used to interpret them.
• The Nova Kakhovka Dam breach demonstrates the need for rapid assessment that makes data limitations and uncertainty explicit.
• Effective dengue control depends on continuous, near-real-time and historical environmental and health data.
• Preparedness should include protection of baselines, monitoring continuity and predefined procedures for decision-making under disrupted evidence.
Keywords Nova Kakhovka Dam; freshwater systems; rapid environmental assessment; data continuity; decision-making under uncertainty; dengue surveillance; environmental health; monitoring disruption
Main discussion question What minimum combination of baseline information, near-real-time monitoring and explicit uncertainty reporting is required to support responsible environmental and public-health decisions when abrupt transformation disrupts both the system under investigation and the data used to understand it?
OJS publication link https://pollution-diseases-ojs.org/index.php/pd/article/view/89
Note. Analytical TracksIn addition to the main thematic areas, the conference programme will include several cross-cutting analytical tracks. These tracks will be defined during the preparation of the programme, based on the submitted abstracts and the emerging links between presentations.At the preliminary stage, abstracts may be assigned to provisional analytical tracks marked as AT-01 to AT-07. Final track titles will be announced after the Scientific Committee has reviewed the submitted materials.