The Tigray War / Northern Ethiopia War, 2020-2022 / PDF
Environmental and Public Health Consequences of the Tigray / Northern Ethiopia War, 2020–2022Pre-conference analytical brief
Purpose of this briefThis note is intended to provide conference participants with a shared environmental and public-health context for the Tigray / Northern Ethiopia War. It does not offer a political or legal assessment of the conflict. Its purpose is to identify the main environmental exposure settings, public-health disruptions, and research questions that are relevant for discussions on war-related pollution, soil degradation, freshwater systems, food security, disease risk, and long-term recovery.
1. Conflict and exposure settingThe Tigray / Northern Ethiopia War was fought primarily in northern Ethiopia between 2020 and 2022, with effects extending across Tigray and into neighbouring areas of Amhara and Afar. The region includes highland farming systems, dryland agriculture, river valleys, small-scale irrigation, livestock systems, rural settlements, towns, transport corridors, and areas with long-standing soil and water conservation investments.For environmental-health analysis, this war should be understood not only as a case of direct violence, but also as a systemic shock to land, water, agriculture, public health infrastructure, mobility, markets, surveillance, and recovery capacity.
2. Main environmental pathwaysThe most important environmental consequences were not limited to direct contamination from weapons. They also included the disruption of systems that normally protect soils, water, food supply, and health.Key pathways include:• interruption of agricultural cycles, including planting, harvesting, access to seeds, fertilizers, livestock inputs, veterinary services, fuel, labour, markets, and storage;• pressure on woody vegetation and landscape restoration areas, partly linked to fuel shortages and the collapse of normal supply systems;• weakening of soil and water conservation practices, with potential consequences for erosion, runoff, groundwater recharge, and long-term agricultural productivity;• damage to water points, pumps, pipes, generators, electricity supply, and maintenance systems;• increased pressure on local water sources due to displacement and concentration of people in insecure or poorly serviced locations;• accumulation of waste, debris, damaged infrastructure, destroyed vehicles, medical waste, fuel residues, and other local contamination sources;• unexploded ordnance and explosive remnants of war as long-term hazards for land use, mobility, agriculture, reconstruction, and children’s safety.The main analytical point is that “environmental damage” in this case cannot be reduced to battlefield pollution alone. It includes the degradation of ecological and infrastructural systems that previously supported food production, safe water, sanitation, and rural resilience.
3. Soil, vegetation, and agricultureTigray had a long history of land restoration, terracing, watershed management, exclosures, and soil and water conservation. These systems are important because they reduce erosion, increase infiltration, support vegetation recovery, and improve agricultural stability in a drought-prone environment.The war threatened this recovery in several ways. Fuel shortages and isolation may have increased pressure on local woody vegetation. Displacement, insecurity, lack of inputs, and market disruption reduced the ability of households and communities to maintain land-management practices. Damage to agricultural livelihoods also weakened the human and institutional capacity required to sustain restoration-based agriculture.At the same time, agricultural impact should not be described simplistically. Remote-sensing research suggests that cultivated area may have remained more stable than expected in 2020–2021, showing the resilience of Tigrayan farmers under extreme conditions. This is important for conference discussion: cultivated area alone is not the same as food security. A field can be planted while households still face hunger because of displacement, market collapse, loss of livestock, blockade conditions, lack of fuel, price shocks, poor access to aid, or loss of health services.
4. Freshwater, sanitation, and disease riskWater and sanitation systems were central to the public-health impact of the war. Damage to water infrastructure, lack of fuel and electricity, loss of maintenance capacity, insecurity, and displacement increased the risk of unsafe water access.The most important public-health pathways include:• reduced access to safe drinking water;• longer and more dangerous journeys to collect water;• overcrowding around limited water points;• deterioration of sanitation and hygiene;• higher risk of diarrhoeal disease;• increased vulnerability to cholera, measles, malaria, acute respiratory infections, and other outbreak-prone diseases;• reduced capacity for routine surveillance and outbreak response.For this reason, freshwater systems should be treated as both environmental systems and health systems. A damaged pump, a non-functioning generator, or a broken supply chain can become a disease-risk factor.
5. Collapse and disruption of health servicesOne of the most documented public-health consequences of the war was the collapse or severe disruption of healthcare capacity. Hospitals, clinics, health centres, health posts, ambulances, cold chains, medicine supplies, referral systems, vaccination services, maternal care, chronic disease treatment, and mental-health support were all affected.This created several layers of health consequences:• direct deaths and injuries from violence;• indirect deaths from untreated disease, childbirth complications, lack of emergency care, and lack of medicines;• interruption of vaccination and increased risk of vaccine-preventable diseases;• deterioration of maternal, neonatal, and child health;• interruption of care for HIV, diabetes, hypertension, tuberculosis, mental illness, and other chronic conditions;• loss of epidemiological surveillance and data systems;• long-term damage to trust, staffing, professional capacity, and public-health governance.For conference purposes, this case is important because it shows how the destruction or paralysis of health services converts environmental and social disruption into measurable disease and mortality risk.
6. Food security, malnutrition, and indirect mortalityFood insecurity was one of the central humanitarian and public-health outcomes of the war. Conflict affected agricultural production, livestock systems, markets, banking, transport, fuel supply, humanitarian access, household income, and food distribution.The most important analytical point is that food insecurity was not only a question of production. It was also a question of access, mobility, purchasing power, humanitarian delivery, market function, and the ability of households to recover. Malnutrition increased vulnerability to infectious disease, pregnancy complications, child mortality, and long-term developmental harm.This makes Tigray a useful case for discussing how war-related disruption of agriculture, water systems, markets, and healthcare can combine into a single public-health emergency.
7. Sexual violence, reproductive health, and long-term traumaSexual and gender-based violence was widely reported during the war and has major public-health consequences. These include physical injury, unwanted pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections, HIV risk, infertility, chronic pain, stigma, family breakdown, depression, post-traumatic stress, and long-term need for specialised medical and psychosocial care.This issue should not be treated as separate from environmental-health analysis. In conflict settings, the collapse of health services, displacement, unsafe water collection, food insecurity, and the breakdown of protection systems can all increase exposure to sexual violence and reduce access to care after violence occurs.
8. Data limitationsThe Tigray case is also important because it illustrates the problem of evidence production during war. Data were limited by restricted access, insecurity, communication blackouts, collapsed institutions, damaged civil registration systems, displacement, fear, stigma, and political contestation.For this reason, researchers must distinguish between:• documented damage and likely but unmeasured damage;• direct mortality and indirect mortality;• cultivated area and actual food security;• infrastructure existence and real service functionality;• short-term humanitarian indicators and long-term health consequences.Remote sensing, humanitarian assessments, clinical records, mortality surveys, interviews, water-system mapping, and local institutional data all provide partial evidence. None of them alone is sufficient.
9. Research relevance for the conferenceThe Tigray / Northern Ethiopia War is relevant to the conference because it shows how war can affect environmental exposure and public health through several interacting systems:• soil and vegetation degradation;• disruption of restoration-based agriculture;• freshwater and sanitation breakdown;• food insecurity and malnutrition;• destruction of health services;• displacement and overcrowding;• disease surveillance collapse;• sexual violence and reproductive-health harm;• explosive remnants of war;• long-term reconstruction of ecological, health, and social systems.The main lesson is that war-related environmental health damage is not only produced by toxic contaminants. It is also produced when the systems that protect land, water, food, sanitation, and healthcare are damaged or made inaccessible.