Title Predictive Environmental Health Risk Assessment for Military Operations: Preventing Long-Term Human Health Consequences
Author(s) David R. Speidel
Affiliation Independent Researcher
Country United States of America
Contribution type methodological paper; review; policy and responsibility analysis
Thematic area • War and Health
Conference framework connection • Analytical Track AT-01 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-02 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-03 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-04 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-05 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-06 — provisional title to be defined• Analytical Track AT-07 — provisional title to be defined
Abstract Military operations involving hazardous chemical agents create environmental exposure pathways that may persist for decades after armed conflicts have ended. While environmental toxicology has substantially improved our understanding of the persistence, transport, and biological effects of hazardous compounds, considerably less attention has been devoted to integrating this knowledge into military planning and operational decision-making. Consequently, long-term consequences for civilian populations, military personnel, and ecosystems are often insufficiently evaluated before military actions are undertaken.The Vietnam War provides one of the best documented examples of this scientific challenge. Previous environmental and epidemiological studies have demonstrated the long-term persistence of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) in soils, sediments, aquatic ecosystems, and food chains following the military application of herbicides. Reported geographical associations between historically contaminated regions and elevated prevalence of congenital heart disease and other chronic disorders indicate that environmental consequences of military chemical operations may continue for generations. This paper argues that the principal research challenge is no longer the retrospective documentation of historical contamination, but the development of predictive scientific approaches capable of identifying long-term environmental and human health consequences before hazardous chemicals are incorporated into military operations. Existing military risk assessment systems primarily address immediate operational hazards, whereas delayed environmental exposure pathways, cumulative ecosystem degradation, and chronic public health impacts remain insufficiently represented within operational planning.Drawing upon published environmental evidence together with operational observations from Vietnam, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan, this paper proposes an expanded framework for military environmental health risk assessment that integrates environmental toxicology, exposure science, environmental epidemiology, bioethics, and long-term ecosystem monitoring into military education and operational planning. Rather than assigning historical responsibility, the proposed framework seeks to strengthen evidence-based military decision-making by incorporating long-term environmental health considerations into operational planning. Bridging the gap between environmental science and military decision-making represents an important interdisciplinary research priority for reducing long-term human suffering associated with future military operations. New models underdevelopment for environmental health risk assessment provide that path to be combined with military doctrine. 
Key points ● Current military risk assessment procedures insufficiently address long-term environmental exposure pathways and delayed human health consequences. ● Predictive Environmental Health Risk Assessment model, provides a scientific framework for integrating environmental evidence into military planning before operational decisions are implemented. ● Strengthening the connection between environmental science and military decision-making may reduce future environmental contamination and long-term human suffering. 
Keywords Predictive Environmental Health Risk Assessment; military operations; environmental toxicology; TCDD; environmental epidemiology; exposure pathways; military decision-making; long-term health effects; environmental contamination; bioethics
Main discussion question How can predictive environmental health risk assessment be systematically integrated into military decision-making to reduce long-term human health and environmental consequences before military operations are undertaken?
OJS publication link https://pollution-diseases-ojs.org/index.php/pd/article/view/48
Note. Analytical TracksIn addition to the main thematic areas, the conference programme will include several cross-cutting analytical tracks. These tracks will be defined during the preparation of the programme, based on the submitted abstracts and the emerging links between presentations.At the preliminary stage, abstracts may be assigned to provisional analytical tracks marked as AT-01 to AT-07. Final track titles will be announced after the Scientific Committee has reviewed the submitted materials.